Welcome to Geo Sri Lanka: case studies for A level geographers

Until recently South Asia has been a neglected are for study; but, it is a rich area for study geographically and,  just as importantly, offers new material for students. As a teacher I was always on the lookout  for new case studies and as an examiner it was always refreshing to see centres moving away from text book examples that had become out of date…which is why I set up this blog. I hope you find the case studies useful.

Phil Brighty

Stop Press: Just added
Has Colombo solved its garbage problem?
The Chilaw mangrove restoration project
Updates:
Challenging Times Ahead for the Sri Lankan Garment Industry
Dengue Fever 2018

List of articles; there are over 20 articles for you to look through; simply click on the link; list of articles and you will find them all

Dengue in Sri Lanka:  Dengue fever in Sri Lanka is reaching epidemic proportions: check out the latest Dengue update.
 Fieldwork in Sri Lanka;

Sri Lanka is a great place to undertake fieldwork for A level geography. A quick browse through the list of titles ( see above) will give an idea of what you can do. Most places are accessible and value for money; plus for students it can be the trip of a lifetime because with careful planning they get to experience what regular tourists never can:

more… 
Next Up: 
China’s expanding influence in South Asia

 

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The Chilaw Mangrove Project; case study and exercise

One area where active conservation is taking place is the Chilaw lagoon; see map below. 

 

Halfway up the west coast this is an area which was formerly mangrove forest. However, a great deal of it has been cleared for shrimp fisheries. Now an NGO, Seacology in cooperation with The Small Fishers Federation of Sri Lanka  ( SUDEESA) are collaborating on a scheme to return sections of the lagoon to its former state.

Chilaw lagoon

This post is part information / case study and part an exercise sheet which can be adapted by teachers and students. I hope you find it useful.

Background:

the following are excerpts taken from  online sources. Read through the following excepts re; Shrimp Farming in the Chilaw Lagoon

Excerpt One

  1. The mangrove areas of Chilaw Lagoon have for a long time sustained the subsistence economies of the surrounding human communities, especially through provision of firewood, poles, posts, tanbark and also crabs, shrimps, molluscs and a variety of finfish for consumption. However, population densities have been steadily rising:

1971    350 persons/km2

1981    444 persons/km2

2009    506 persons/km2

Points

  • Unemployment levels are around 30% (2009)
  • Self employment accounts for 30% of work force
  • The population relies heavily on agriculture (23%) and fishing (16%)
  • the fishermen and shrimp farmers use traditional boats; outrigger canoes amd log rafts but many don’t use boats at all, just nets
  • most shrimp farms are relatively small employeing on average 3 or 4 workers

Excerpt 2

Shrimp farming did not start until the mid-1980s in the western coastal belt between Kalpitiya and Negombo, but there has been a rapid expansion in shrimp cultivation in recent years.The total number of farms in the Chilaw area has grown to 183 since 1993, when the CEA/Euroconsult survey estimated there to be approximately 18 farms in operation. This is a ten-fold increase on the numbers estimated in 1993. The area under cultivation in 1994 was approximately 52 hectares. In the 2001 survey it was estimated to be 247.8 hectares, nearly a 5-fold increase in a seven-year time-span.

Profits from Shrimp fishing are high but it’s ecological footprint is high; meaning a large area of lagoon is needed to sustain shrimp farming: estimates for the footprint put it at 27.86./ha.

One hectare of shrimp farm needs nearly 30 ha of lagoon to support it and keep it profitable. Overall the shrimp fiseries in the lagoon would require 2478 ha; much more water area than exists at present.

an area cleared of mangrove for a new shrimp fishery

Excerpt 3

The following important environmental consequences from shrimp farming:

  • Valuable mangrove and marsh land rich in plant and animal life are cleared for pond construction and fringing habitats get heavily degraded. This leads to reduced feeding and breeding habitats for commercially important coastal and marine finfish and shellfish, to the detriment of the lucrative coastal fishery
  • The operation of shrimp farms requires application of nutrients and chemicals (pesticides, lime). When discharged, these pollute the water, causing eutrophication, resulting in algal blooms (often toxic), severe oxygen depletion and high levels of fish/shrimp mortality.
  • Hydrological changes and salinization of ground water occur when brackish water is pumped to shrimp farms situated more inland. Abstraction of ground water for fresh water supply to intensive pond culture may also result in salinization of fresh water aquifers, degrading domestic and agricultural water supplies, leading to social unrest.
  • Intensive farming, where organisms are kept at high densities, requires hatchery seed supplies, supplementary feed and chemicals. On the other hand, the traditional extensive farming keeps the animals at low densities and do not require seed from hatcheries and supplementary feeding. However, extensive farming consumes the large areas of mangrove, with very low productivity in return.
  • The construction of shallow ponds for shrimp farming is reported to have disturbed the drainage patterns in the area, resulting in the inundation of Chilaw and Puttalam areas during the heavy monsoon rains in 1995, adversely affecting over 3,000 households
  • The self-pollution of the lagoon water contributes towards the spread of shrimp disease, reducing productivity, and increasingvulnerability to the shocks and stresses experienced by less wealthy farmers and has negative impacts on household income
  • The clearance of mangroves also has an affect on the capacity of the lagoon to sustain the present levels of production in Chilaw. The cleaning capacity of mangroves will continue to be important to the productivity while the farms are dependent on lagoon water working in open-culture systems.

Excerpt 4

mangrove is valuable to shrimp fisheries in 3 ways

  • nursery for larvae
  • mangrove provides feed for shrimps
  • mangroves can help filter out waste fromn the lagoon

An important feature in (Pambala-) Kakkapalliya is the recent establishment of the Small Fishers Federation of Lanka (SFFL), a non-governmental organisation (NGO) concerned with the well-being of the local fishing community, including their wives and children, and with eco-friendly projects and mangrove conservation

A mangrove rehabilitation project ran by SFFL, lead to the plantation of about 50 000 mangrove seedlings in Pambala Lagoon was inaugurated in 1997. The reforestation plots were visited in the field and estimated to cover about 2.4 ha.

The area required for lagoon water support is calculated to be 4.5 times the surface area of the farms. This means a lagoon water surface area of 1,115 hectares is required per year to support farming in Chilaw. This, perhaps, can help explain the problems the industry in Chilaw, Mundal and Puttalam has suffered from poor quality lagoonwater as a result of self-pollution

An alternative is the use of wetlands as a bio-filter for the effective removal of solidsand the transformation of excess nutrients.

Experimental constructed wetlands, usingplanted vegetation, have been tested successfully for treating effluents from freshwater catfish ponds in the USA, and for treating salt-water shrimp ponds in Thailand

The processes involved in suspended solids and nutrient removal in wetlandsinclude sedimentation, decomposition of organic matter, uptake of nutrients by plants and bacteria, nitrification-denitrification and absorption of ions by soil. Mangroves forests have also been reported as sinks of phosphorous and nitrogen and several authors have reported their effectiveness in removing nutrients from effluent water

The approach of combining shrimp farms and mangroves to act as biofilters, issupported by many environmentalists, as a positive move in the sustainable management of shrimp farms.

The benefits of mangroves as biofilters for shrimp farm effluents may be significant in areas such as Chilaw, where space is limited for the siting of sedimentation ponds, and the regeneration of mangroves may be beneficial to more interest groups than simply shrimp farmers.

Here, the replanting of mangroves, if managed effectively could benefit local communities for livestock fodder, firewood and traditional uses and fisher groups, as  the presence of mangroves have been shown to increase shrimp fishery productivity in Chilaw lagoon

mangrove nurseries in Chilaw

Postscript; Check out: mangroves return to Chilaw Lagoon: http://ll.dw.de/en/mangroves-return-to-chilaw-lagoon/av-39532196

Questions

1.:  Use the search facility on google (Chilaw Lagoon Shrimp Fisheries, shrimp ponds in Sri lanka ) to capture images of the lagoon environment, the traditional fishing outriggers and the shrimp farms; Use the images to describe the environment of Chilaw Lagoon

  1. Outline the factors which have led to the rapid expansion of shrimp farming in the Chliaw lagoon.

3.. What do you understand by the term eocological footprint (EF)? What is the EF for shrimp farming?  Why is the ecological footprint of shrimp farming so high? How does this link to notions of sustainability?

4.  Explain the ways in which mangrove conservation could be beneficial both to shrimp farmers and the wider community in Chilaw lagoon

5. Using the following resource links:

Outline the role the of the local community and especially the role of women in bringing about a more sustainable use of the lagoon resources.

Additional references

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/gallery/2016/jul/26/mangroves-and-incomes-flourish-as-sri-lankas-women-promote-conservation-in-pictures
  2. https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/13876gPrlG6TNF1hXHIz-_6-8Au7GXaJwzt2rZjDsRKA/edit#slide=id.p4
  3. Effective Management for Biodiversity Conservation in Sri Lankan Coastal Wetlands: a measurement of the ecological footprint of shrimp farming in the chilaw lagoon area.
  4. http://www.eurocbc.org/Ecological%20Footprint%20of%20Shrimp%20Farming%20in%20Chilaw.pdf
  5. http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/06/from-residents-to-rangers-local-communities-take-lead-on-mangrove-conservation-in-sri-lanka/

 

Has Colombo solved its garbage problem?

Despite a number of concerns, ( check out my earlier blog for details ) the proposed development of a sanitary landfill site at Aruwakkalu close to Puttalam up on the west coast is going ahead and Colombo will have a short term solution at least to its garbage problem. The site at Aruwakkalu ( a disused limestone quarry) will cover 45 acres to begin with but could be could be expanded further if need arose. The question is; will this be enough?

the landfill site at Aruwakkalu now

and in its finished state (images; http://www.sundayobserver.lk)

The idea initially is for two trains to run daily from the collecting station at Kelaniya north of Colombo city to Aruwakkalu.  Each train will transport 1,200 metric tons of compressed blocks of solid waste in 13 rail wagons and 26 sealed containers. Eventually the processed garbage will be carried by road. The image below gives some detail of the route.

So how does this landfill work?

It’s basically a large hole in the ground which is sealed with an impermeable bottom liner to prevent leaching and pollution of groundwater.

Waste is deposited in thin layers  and compacted by heavy machinery. to form a refuse cell about 3 metres thick. At the end of each day the  refuse cell is covered with a layer of compacted soil to prevent odours and windblown debris.  When the landfill is completed, it is capped with a layer of clay or a synthetic liner in order to prevent water from entering. A final topsoil cover is placed, compacted, and graded, and various forms of vegetation may be planted in order to reclaim the land.

There are problems to be overcome.

  • methane from the decomposing garbage needs to be burned off although it can be used to generate electricity.
  • pollutant liquids ( leachates ) have to be drained off and removed to avoid polluting the soil.
The need for a sustainable solution

All living things produce waste and in order to survive they have to remove that waste. The same is true for cities. If they cannot, then eventually city life becomes unsustainable. Signs of stress emerge; garbage in the streets, garbage clogging drainage channels and canals, foul smelling air, the spread of insect borne and water borne diseases  like dengue, and negative impacts on health.

Hazards from  open dumps

Open dumping  results in a range of environmental hazards especially because:

  • a large % of the waste is organic which creates highly acidic and toxic leachates in the soil
  • high rainfall, humidity and high temperatures accelerate breakdown of organic material
  1. Dumps are breeding frounds for mosquitos. It is no coincidence that the number of dengue cases is much higher in urban areas such as Colombo. (You can find more on dengue in various other blogs on this site).
  2. Leaching from the dumps pollutes groundwater. The National Water Supply and Drainage Board has found that the ground water aquifers in the greater Colombo area are polluted, primarily because of open dumping of solid waste, and thus unsuitable for use as a source of drinking water supply.
  3. Open solid waste dumps also are a primary source of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide, leading to air pollution
  4. In Sri Lanka, high levels of odour, dust and toxic fumes have been found emanating from uncontrolled burning of solid waste (Asian Institute of Technology, 2004).
  5. Haphazard dumping also results in the loss of wetland habitats, which impacts on fauna and flora (particularly in Attidiya and Muthurajawela areas), 
  6. Another serious issue relates to hazardous, electronic and other industrial waste and this includes oil and waste water management since very few facilities are available to recycle such waste in Sri Lanka.
  7. Large unstructured dumps are unstable and prone to collapse; see my blog on the Meethotamulla disaster
Why bother?

For countries in the developing world hoping to get a slice of the development action cities choked by garbage are not attractive places to be. Which multi-nationals would want to locate new offices and  personnel  to glorified rubbish dumps and open sewers.?

And that is what Colombo is becoming. Harsh you think?  Take a look at  a typical street scene in the city. Garbage is just dumped almost anywhere and left; no-one’s responsibility. Everyone does it, not just the poor, although the wealthy are careful not to fly tip in their neighbourhoods preferring low income areas as dumping grounds.

What you see above is random dumping of garbage in the street. But there is garbage dumping on a much greater scale, for example the temporary tip at Keradeniya ( below). Much of it goes unregulated.

Even fragile wetlands such as the Attidiya bird sanctuary haven’t escaped environmental abuse. You have to ask; what are the politicians thinking?

So how has the garbage situation got to this point?

It is estimated that Colombo generates around 8,500 tons of garbage per day but only 25%  is collected. The collected waste finds its way on to open dumps. The rest finds its way onto the streets.

The question is why? As always there is more than one explanation. Here are the main issues.

  • Population Growth: In the last 50 years the population of Colombo has more than doubled and with that the population density has risen from 138 persons per hectare to 268p/ha. Increasing population inevitably means increased amounts of garbage. 
  • Poor governance at both national and municipal level. Until very recently there has been no direction from national government. There has been very little regulation of municipal authorities, a lack of strategic planning and no control of private contractors given contracts for garbage collection and disposal. In other words a free for all with waste management apparently a very low priority for the government. A major problem is that local authorities are not held to account by government,  either for the manner of waste disposal or for the fact that they fail to service all households who are left with little alternative but to roadside dump.
  • Insufficient funding for personnel, vehicles and garbage processing
  • The spread of low-income settlements in urban areas, which go largely unserviced and don’t have access to regular garbage collection
  • Market forces that introduce cheap and unsustainable products, including Increased consumption  of plastic packaging. Inevitably, with the rise of the supermarket chains,  one use plastic bags,  and the increased use of polythene or plastic for wrapping food, there is more waste to dispose of.
  • Lack of environmental health and safety practices among waste collectors
  • Old technology, and limited land for waste disposal.

But there is also another factor; Sri Lanka has a litter culture. Littering is commonplace. Almost everywhere you will see people adding to existing piles or starting new ones; just like this guy.

Littering appears to be acceptable in the public consciousness. Simply put; anti litter laws are not enforced if they exist at all, littering goes unpunished. Nobody cares.

Open Waste dumping is ingrained into Sri Lankan society as a result of:

  • Inadequate municipal collection and disposal
  • Apathy on the part of the public
  • The fact that Sri Lankans don’t really see dumping garbage as a problem, and there seems to be  no motivation to be different;  to recycle,  or to compost.

Attitudes  both political and public need to change

So what are the fixes?

Many argue that landfill is a short term fix not least because of the problems of identifying other potential sites and the resultant public outcry that would ensue in areas targeted for landfill.. Aruwakkalu will eventually fill up. More sites will be needed but given the difficulties the government have experienced finding its first large scale site, can we be sure there will be other sites coming on stream?

1.  The need to re-focus

The recent partial collapse of the open dump at Meethotamulla  which caused more than 30 deaths and damaged or destroyed many low income houses was a wake up call for age government and had the effect of creating a call for a national integrated waste management plan under the control of a government minister. We have to wait to see whether this materialises. However, leaving under-funded municipal authorities to their own devices hasn’t worked.

2.  New approaches

Developing sanitary landfill sites is a step forward and will make a difference but it cannot be the only solution not least because of the expense involved given that the Sri Lankan government is cash-strapped.

Many argue that composting offers an additional way forward given that a large % of waste is organic. The question is; how do you make this happen?

Supporters argue that  community  participation  should be at the core of a drive to more composting a move that could lead to a number of  benefits. Proponents argue that community based composting projects :

  • are cost effective
  • cheaper and therefore not  constrained by limited municipal budgets
  •  reduce the amount of solid waste
  • build environmental awareness within the community
  • would encourage segregation and recycling of waste
  • generate strategies for waste management tailored to local community skills and perceptions
  • build local community involvement through engagement, and developing skills.
  • add an income source for the local community with the sale of recycled materials and compost.

One such example are Community Based Solid Waste Management Projects in Matale and Ratnapura Cities (Integrated resource Recovery Centre Project-IRRC) projects supervised by the Colombo based N.G.O. Sevanatha

‘In Matale, the SEVANATHA with its subsidiary company called Micro Enrich Compost (Pvt) Limited is currently managing the IRRC project. This project has conducted extensive community awareness to motivate the people in residential and non- residential areas to separate waste at source and hand over it to the collectors of the IRRC. In Matale city, the IRRC is handling around seven (07) tons of organic waste at present and working towards achieving nine (09) tons per day capacity soon. It also collects all the recyclable materials and further segregates them for selling at the local market.

Considering the success of IRRC project in Matale, the UN-ESCAP has provided the funding and technical support replicate this model in Ratnapura Municipal area where the city council has provided required support for the project. Accordingly, five (05) tons per day capacity IRR Centre was built at Kanadola in Ratnapura town. This centre was opened in January 2014 and currently running its operation as in Matale. SEVANATHA through its MEC (Pvt) Ltd manages this project in Ratnapura in partnership with the Municipal Council of Rathnapura.” (reprinted from the Sevanatha website)

Final thoughts

The situation in Colombo is dire, and seems to be getting worse. The previous government was successful at keeping the streets clean but at the expense of creating the massive open dump at Meethotamulla. The new landfill site will go some way to getting the existing situation under control but on its own it will not be enough. Even if new landfill sites are found it is hard to see them providing a sustainable solution on their own. There is a crying need for  recycling projects and composting projects to add to the mix.

Educating politicians to take the garbage problem seriously has proven difficult in the past. Educating the public to take better care of the city environment has also proven difficult. However, the current government have ambitious plans for economic development in the coming years.This means attracting foreign direct investment, but in order to be attractive Colombo has to present a greener less polluted face to the world.

Garbage collection and disposal cannot be left to private companies and individuals. it is the state’s responsibility. What is needed then is the appointment of a minister with overall control of garbage collection, street cleaning and the urban environment, with Municipal councils answerable to the ministry; with clear guidelines laid down for all councils to follow and investment in modern equipment, vehicles and personnel to back it up.

The government have recently banned single use plastic bags; big deal! What they need to do is actively prosecute fly tippers and enforce the laws against dumping that exist. Education in the schools is the next step. if the current generational deaf to the threat of a garbage contaminated society then maybe it is up to the younger generation to take the lead.

 

Dengue 2018 Sri Lanka; news update: Another epidemic in Batticaloa?

Dengue Fever is not going to go away! 2017 was a terrible year and one which showed quite clearly that the authorities did not have a grip on the disease. Will the number of new cases drop back from the 2017, highs or will dengue fever become even more entrenched?

Note; all new edits are in red 

STOP PRESS: Another epidemic in Batticaloa ?

Just Added: Cases per 000 of the population; see below

Watch this space

In this follow up to my earlier post Dengue Update I am going to analyse the figures on a monthly basis starting with January 2018. Most of what was written in the earlier article still holds true so this post is just about adding current information as it becomes available, together with all new material that is around on the web.

So the format for this post will be as follows:

  1. Cumulative total cases for Sri Lanka; running total compared with 2015, 2016, and 2017
  2. The top 10 worst affected districts

Sri Lanka Administrative districts

  1. Cumulative Total to date: to end June
  • 2015:    16,433
  • 2016:    23,814
  • 2017:    86,916
  • 2018:   25,099   lower than 2017 BUT still up on earlier years

2.  Top Ten Hotspots as at 31/06/18

  1. Colombo          4,336
  2. Batticaloa        3,606 
  3. Gampaha         2,131
  4. Jaffna               1,753
  5. Kandy               1,732
  6. Kalutara           1,513
  7. Kurunegela      1,338
  8. Kalmunai         1,295
  9. Puttalam          1.180
  10. Ratnapura      1,129

Commentary:

 

  • Batticaloa jumps above Gampaha to 2nd and it looks like they have another epidemic on their hands
  • Already the incidence of dengue in Batticaloa is running at nearly 5 cases per 000 of the population. Only the muslim enclave of Kalmunai is worse
  • The number of cases jumped significantly in Kandy 
  • You would expect the number of cases to tail off in Jaffna now the dry season has arrived, but it isn’t. Discounting 2017 which was a major epidemic year, the number of cases is 300+ up on 2016
  • Interestingly, although Colombo has the highest total number the figures are  below the number of cases for the first three months in 2017 and 2016 and figures for Gampaha are also lower.
  • Overall at 20,083 cases the figures are well down on 2017 but still higher than either 2016 or 2016

Why Batticaloa?

There is an interesting document I found which you can also read especially if you are medically inclined about the dengue outbreak in Batticaloa

Dengue Outbreak in Eastern part of the Sri Lanka, Study Conducted in Teaching Hospital Batticaloa, Sri Lanka

Apart from the medical information there are 3 interesting points to note re: 2017 and possibly 2018

  1. Rainfall was higher than normal during the North east Monsoon
  2. Men were twice as likely to contract dengue as women
  3. There has been a marked increase in road and infrastructure development in the area

Putting all that together there is a situation where increased rainfall promotes a growth in the mosquito population, building works provide many potential nesting sites for the mosquito and it would be largely men who would be working on the buiding sites and be vulnerable to the dengue mosquito. That would explain the rise and rise of dengue in Batticaloa. It might also explain why Jaffna is seeing a marked increase in dengue cases.

Context: Batticaloa

  • 2015: 1474 cases
  • 2016:   612 cases
  • 2017: 5606 cases
  • 2018: 3606 cases so far

Looking at the cases reported over the extended monsoon and post monsoon period you can see that in 2016/7 the number of cases was 3687 and that was an epidemic year. The number of cases for the current monsoon period  (November to March) stands at 3580; about the same. What will be interesting to see is how the number of cases during the dry season this year compares with last year.

A note on Jaffna

Dengue is starting to surge in Jaffna. A recent report from Jaffna teaching hospital suggested that unclean domestic water storage tanks were the main reason for the increase in cases Jaffna.

Most of the Jaffna dengue cases have been reported from the Karavedy area, where water is in short supply and house occupants are forced to collect water in buckets.

A note on Kandy

Kandy is also suffering: this from the Sri Lankan Sunday Times:

“Officials in Kandy concerned about dengue cases there (1,687 to date this year) plan to get tough over the trail of rubbish that hundreds of daily visitors to the city leave behind them.

The Kandy Municipal Council faces the problem of the streams of visitors leaving behind a mass of empty king coconut shells, yoghurt and ice-cream cups and other plastic receptacles, all ideal containers for stagnant water where dengue mosquitoes can breed, Kandy Hospital Deputy Director Dr. Nissanka Wijewardene said.

“We plan to implement the law very strictly, regardless of whether the neighbourhoods are poor or affluent. This is the only way, it seems, to control dengue in Kandy”, Dr Wijewardene said.

Indifference to hygiene and health care was widespread, the Kandy Municipal Council’s chief medical officer, Dr. Asoka Senarath, said, saying there were 2313 dengue cases in June alone.

“People here discard garbage without bothering to tie the bags. Empty curd pots are thrown in gardens and on roads, and these collect water and become mosquito breeding spots.A radical change in behaviour patterns is needed here,” Dr. Senerath said. Public health officers and volunteers were working hard to raise levels of health awareness and promote disease prevention practices in the Kandy community.

“There should be pro-active surveillance where even if only a couple of people fall ill with dengue from an area the authorities should be able to immediately visit the house, neighbourhoods, conduct cleaning programmes and fumigation,” Dr. Senerath said.”

Cases per 000 of the population

looking at the total number of cases is useful if you are planning for the number of medic, hospital beds, distribution of medication etc. However, to get an idea of the incidence and to be able to compare district with district you need to look at the numbers per 000 of the population; so see below; new table added. This gives a truer picture of where the virus is hitting hardest.

Census 2012 Population Cases per 000 2017 rank Cases per 000 2018 May 31st rank
Colombo 2324,349 14.9 2 1.4 4
Gampaha 2304833 13.7 3 0.72 15
Kalutara 1221948 9 11 1.08 8
Kandy 1375382 10.7 5 1.01 10
Matale 484531 6.5 14 0.97 11
Nuwara Eliya 711644 1.3 26 0.11 24
Galle 1063334 6 17 0.15 23
Hambantota 599903 6 17 0.76 14
Matara 814048 7.8 12 0.53 18
Jaffna 583882 10.4 7 2.4 3
Kilinochchi 113510 5 20 1.21 6
Mannar 99570 5.4 19 0.26 22
Vavuniya 172115 6.2 15 1.19 7
Mulativu 92238 4.2 22 0.36 20
Batticaloa 526,567 10.6 5 5.93 2
Ampara 649402 1.4 25 0.10 25
Trincomalee 379541 13.2 10 1.06 9
Kurunegala 1818465 6.2 15 0.67 17
Puttalam 762396 10.3 9 1.45 5
Anuradhapura 860575 3.4 24 0.47 19
Polonnaruwa 406088 3.5 23 0.31 21
Badulla 815405 4.5 21 0.24 23
Moneragala 451058 7.2 13 0.92 12
Ratnapura 1088007 10.4 7 0.86 13
Kegalle 840648 11.4 4 0.75 16
Kalmunai 106780 28.4 1 11.64 1
average 8.5 0.96

 

What you can see is that in 2017

  •  The wetter west/south west has the higher rates per 000 of the population; as you may expect with 2 monsoons per year and higher population densities
  • but also it highlights the significant growth in the number of cases in the North and East. Jaffna is now becoming a dengue hotspot albeit the number of cases tails off during the dry season and both Batticaloa and Trincomalee suffered major epidemics last year
  • Kalmunai was a shock; highest of all! It is a muslim majority city in Ampara district which has a very low incidence of dengue overall. The high number of cases per 000 of the population seems to be restricted to the muslim community. You can speculate on why that might be. Is it because the muslim community is relatively segregated from the rest of Ampara district? Is it because Kalmunai is more urbanised and therefore has a bigger waste disposal problem, more breeding sites? Or is it due to higher levels of population density? Maybe a combination of all three?

For 2018 there seem to be some significant changes:  We are now 5 months into the new year and a pattern is beginning to emerge.

  • Kalmunai still dominates the data set although evidence suggests that the incidence of dengue is starting to fall
  • Batticaloa is now ranked 2; up from 6th last year which many thought to be an epidemic year. Maybe now that the dry season is approaching the number of cases will tail off. We have to wait to see. Just worth noting that in 2016 the total number of cases here was 612!
  • Jaffna is now right up there; again this may be a seasonal occurrence and overall the number of cases may start to tail off.
  • Keep an eye on Kandy. It has a wetter climate, conditions more suited to the growth of the mosquito population and it is now closing in on Gampaha in terms of total number of cases
  • Puttalam ranked 9th in 2017. At the moment it ranks 4th
  • Colombo on this table has fallen from 2nd to 5th
  • Gampaha ahas fallen out of the worst 5
  • Worth noting that Trincomalee is nowhere near as affected as Batticaloa so the question has to be why?
  • Galle is no longer a hotspot

Suggestion: if you are downloading this why not also download the admin districts map and map the top 5 or whatever on a monthly basis to see how the virus moves around and how new hotspots emerge.

To help with that

Just picked this up via a post on facebook; what does it mean? I guess it means that the virus is mutating and given the large number of folks affected in 2017 (and possibly 2018) the health risk from dengue fever is increasing, not decreasing! It isn’t just dengue anymore, it’s dengue with attitude! All the more reason for the authorities and the general public to get rid of the complacency that has typified the approach towards fighting this unpleasant disease.

“The behavior of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever has changed drastically during the current dengue epidemic. We have encountered lot of children with abnormal disease behavior making it a real challenge to detect and manage the disease. The differences we observed are:
1. Patient entering the critical phase very early in the disease course (like day 2, even in day 1)
2. Commencement of the critical phase before platelet crossing 100,000/microlitre (Sometimes even far above 150,000/microlitre )
3. WBC count remaining high above 5000/microlitre throughout the disease course
4. Abnormally prolonged viraemia where both fever and NS1 postivity continues beyond 7th day of the illness.
5. Settlement of fever early in disease course, but platelets continuing to drop and patient entering critical phase later
6. Presence of Co-infection, mainly LRTI and tonsillitis which is misleading.
7. Abnormally short critical phase where patient enter recovery phase or equilibrium phase early ( Here risk is patient suffering fluid overload due to attribution of changes in parameters to critical phase. However we haven’t encountered prolonged critical phase much)
8. Rapid leaking where patient suffers shock within 12 hours without evidence of bleeding (we had one who suffered shock in 6 hours and had platelet count of 160000 and 9% rise in haematocrit at the time of event.)”

 

The worst drought in four decades hits Sri Lanka hard

Sri Lanka has just experienced its worst drought for more than forty years. Reservoir levels fell to around 33% of capacity and many tanks dried up or are at low levels. Agriculture, particularly rice padi production has been decimated. One estimate suggested that by November 2016 only 35% of the  nation’s rice padi had been cultivated and that over 1.2 million people have been directly affected by food shortages and loss of income. H.E.P. production was also affected and led to power cuts being imposed during the latter part of the year.

This was the picture for southern India and Sri lanka as of May this year:

source: IWMI

You can find this map for yourself on the IWMI site (they are based in Colombo) and also on the Relief Web site; When it is amplified you will see that a large area of Sri lanka and Tamil Nadu are speckled brown (severe or extreme drought). This was a situation that had been developing for some time but it has come to a head in 2017.

Droughts can be categorised in a number of ways;

  1. When rainfall is well below normal/average levels
  2. When soil moisture content falls well below normal levels
  3. Where lack of rainfall leads to significant decline in agricultural production
  4. Where there is insufficient water to sustain the population

So what we now understand is that rainfall levels fell way short of normal; i.e. there was a rainfall deficit which affected pretty much everywhere apart from the south west of the island, as this map re-printed from Global Risk Insights shows:

 

With the exception of the North West around Puttalam it is the DRY zone which has been affected most. This is the zone which tends to rely on the North-East monsoon for its rainfall. So that means November / December. For the rest of the year high temperatures prevail. High temperatures lead to high evapo-transpiration rates (water loss from the soil and plants) and the soil dries out, storage tanks and reservoirs shrink.

source roar media network

So long as the monsoon rains return in November then all is well and the cycle continues supporting padi production, animal grazing and so on. However, what if the rains are much less than usual? Then soil moisture isn’t replenished and farmers run out of water. That is drought on 3 levels!

What is happening to rainfall?

So what happened to the monsoon in 2015/6/7 especially the North-East Monsoon? Without rainfall data for 2016/7, we can only speculate but anecdotally at least all the evidence points to a failure in the 2016 North East monsoon especially in the Dry Zone. This is borne out by the pattern of rainfall deficit shown on the  rainfall data map where there is a high rainfall deficit pretty much everywhere, South-West excluded.

Possibly this is part of a long term trend. Looking at rainfall data  for the period 2000- 2015 there is a suggestion that in the dry zone rainfall may be declining:

  1. The amount of rain falling between January and August is declining; for example: Batticaloa; Since 2009 7 out of the 9 years have experienced below the average rainfall  for that period. The figures for Jaffna do not show the same trend BUT rainfall in that period only averages 371mm (2000-2015) anyway and given the high evaporation rates that is effectively a very dry season.
  2. For Jaffna and the North the NEM was lower than average 2005/6/7 and then again 2013/4

(Even then the paradox is that whilst rainfall levels may have not dropped that much in some areas the view of senior meteorologists is that  the rains are coming in more intense bursts, that is shorter periods of more intense rain with longer hotter periods between them (attributed to a general rise in temperatures across the South Asia region giving rise to  enhanced convective activity or storm clouds) So the significance of this is that the more intense the rainfall the more of it will run away(surface run-off) rather than soaking into the ground and recharging water tables.)

Causes

The other information we have to factor in is that 2015/6 were both strong El Nino years. El Nino is associated with suppressed convective uplift (the sort that stops rain clouds forming)  2016 also saw the Indian Ocean Dipole in negative phase so the Eastern Indian Ocean was warmer than normal which brought heavy rains to Western Australia but suppressed rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka.

 

So the dark brown areas are areas of negative rainfall anomaly; i.e. much less raeinfall that normal. You may just be able to make out a big smear of brown across southern India and Sri Lanka. It means that rainfall was well down on the average for June and August.

The El Nino has weakened and is now in neutral as is the IOD but clearly the climate system has taken time to revert. What we won’yt know for a few months yet it how the October/November inter-monsoon period is going to react or what will happen to the North east Monsoon.

Impacts

a.  As of 20 August, more than 1.2 million people across 19 out of 25 districts remained affected by drought. Northern, North-Central and Eastern Provinces were reporting low levels of water for agricultural, drinking and household use. The failure of two harvests in 2017 has raised concerns for the food security and livelihoods of affected communities. (relief web).

b.  Reservoirs  fell to dangerously low levels, many at only 30% of normal levels

c.  Plus increasing numbers of people are not getting either enough food or the income to buy food. The country’s rice harvest is likely to be down about 17 percent from the 4 million tons recorded in 2013, which would make it the lowest in six years. (IRIN). This has led to Sri Lanka having to import rice

d. There is a definite geographical pattern to the impact of this drought. It is the (mainly) poorer and more vulnerable communities of the North and East, still weakened by the effects of the Civil War,  who are suffering most as this graphic taken from a local newspaper indicates;

What this drought has shown above all is that water insecurity has become a major issue for Sri Lanka.

Feeling the impacts
  1. Agriculture; without going into too much detail agriculture in Sri Lanka is not well advanced. 40% of cropland is down to irrigated rice production much of it at subsistence level and is characterised by:
  • low levels of mechanization
  • predominantly rain fed
  • a significant % is at subsistence level
  • costs are high and profitability is low
  • land holdings are small
  • there is too much reliance on traditional practices that determine the type of seed, water levels and harvesting patterns. Harvesting patterns based on scientific research are taking time to gain acceptance.
  • water conservation is not high on the list of priorities

Plus there is not enough water transfer capacity to mover water from the wetter mountain zones into the dry zone to irrigate crops and support the population.

All of which makes Sri Lanka vulnerable to climate shocks such as the current drought.

2.  Hydro Electric Power generation

During normal years when reservoirs are at capacity Sri Lanka can generate around 50% of its needs from HEP. Currently the country is supplying just 34% of its power supply from HEP meaning an increasing reliance on imported fossil fuels which pollute the environments and impact on an already delicate balance of payments situation for the country.

Plus there are other factors which impact on water demand to take into account:

  • The population is now much higher than in the 1970s greatly increasing demand for water.
  • Sri Lanka’s per capita water usage has picked up sharply over the past decades with rising living standards.
  • Piped water, bathrooms with showers and flush toilets, industrialization, tourism, vehicle usage have all driven up water use.
Water Security: Practical Solutions

All the indications are that climatic hazard events will become more, not less frequent in the coming decades. So, what to do?

  1.  The commonsense answer ( but not the most practicable in all probability) is to use less water. That could include:
  • changing charging policies for water use; water tariffs are generally thought to be too low so this means that effectively raising the cost of water to the domestic consumer is needed to curb inefficient use and wastage. However, in Sri Lanka where significant numbers of people are already close to the poverty line (however that may be drawn) such a move will hit the poor hardest
  • having a more effective metering system in place particularly where crop irrigation is concerned to ensure a more efficient use of irrigation water
  • exert greater control over use of water by industrial companies and in the tourist sector

2. Conserve water

  • develop efficient water recycling facilities; for example Colombo does not have a proper waste water treatment plant resulting in partially treated water discharged to the ocean. (source Water Sector of Sri Lanka report 2014). This is a crazy situation. Greater Colombo is bound to be a major water user with a high water demand. Why is the waste water simply flushed away when it could be recycled as it is in many other countries
  • industrial pollution of water resources needs to be dealt with; inland waters in urban areas are polluted heavily with domestic sewage and industrial effluents It seems that in many cases domestic waste finds its way directly into rivers; people often use rivers as a latrine and all sorts of waste is dumped in surface streams rendering them unusable as these two images  found in the Sunday Times show.

So here you can see untreated effluent running into the Kelani River from a local canal

and here is a fairly typical scene in a watercourse by a low income settlement

In rural areas with agricultural runoff pollutes rivers and streams. In urban over-crowded cities, there is biological contamination of ground water.  Except for pipe-borne water supply, irrigation and hydro-power schemes, in general water resources in Sri Lanka are managed very poorly. Regulations are available to control most water related problems but enforcement of these regulations is lacking.

… and this is the point. Water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource. There is a real need to conserve existing supplies and re-cycle water effectively.

3.  Develop exiting inter – basin water transfer schemes. In other words mover water by pipeline and channel transfers from the wetter areas to the dry zone. The Mahaweli River basin project initiated in the 1970’s  was intended to take water from the mountains to the dry zone; and it does. But is that enough? Question rather than answer and obviously any addition to existing arrangements would be expensive. The question is; does the government even consider whether adding to existing water transfer schemes is worth investigating?

4. Innovative methods; harvesting rain water. I found this extract printed in the Daily Mirror 2016;

Water that falls on a roof of 1,000 sq m in Colombo (average rainfall is 2,000 mm) during a period of one year would be around 2,000 cubic meters (i.e 2 million litres or app. 400,000 gallons). The actual cost of this amount of water would be around Rs. 90,000. The rainwater that falls on the roofs of extensive buildings such as hospitals, schools, housing complexes etc. could be collected in tanks in the premises itself. Water thus collected could be used for numerous domestic purposes. Currently we use chlorinated water suitable for drinking to wash cars, water plants, clean toilets etc. Using rainwater for these activities would reduce water bills, save purified water, which could be used for drinking purposes. Once the collection system is installed there is no additional cost involved except on pumping of collected water to the main water supply system. (Dr CS Weerearatna Daily Mirror October 2016)

source pinterest

This is one simple idea which involves collecting rainfall from roofs and storing it in large tanks either fully or partially underground. The only costs involved are the installation costs plus the cost of pumping the water from the tank. Is this being promoted by the government? It doesn’t seem to be. But these are simple low-tech solutions, so it is surprising that so little is being done.

This article began by charting the development of the latest drought to hit Sri Lanka. Monsoons will fail from time to time, that is a given. Although we understand more now about why droughts  occur  we are powerless to stop them happening. All of which means that when they do occur it is important to have strategies in place to help people cope; to reduce their vulnerability to drought. Sri Lanka is not alone , in facing the dilemma of what to do and how to do it. Water security is an issue throughout South Asia. What this drought has done is bring into sharp focus the need to be planning now for the next drought or Sri Lanka will simply have to go through this crisis all over again.

Making sense of the Sri Lankan Monsoon

Rainfall in Sri Lanka is not predictable and monthly averages mean very little. Although the 3 main rainy seasons start pretty much on time (give or take a fortnight) the amount of rain that falls during those seasons is variable from year to year,and in the North and East the dry season may be getting drier. So why is the monsoon so variable both from one year to the next and over longer periods?

First a little bit of simplified theory.

Surface temperature, air pressure and surface winds

things you need to know if you don’t already:

  1. rising air = low pressure: it is caused by one of three mechanisms:

a.  heating from below – convection

b.  warm ( less dense ) air rising over cooler (more dense air ) – frontal rainfall

c.  where two air masses meet or converge – convergence.

Rising air is associated with cloud formation and rainfall. (air cools, condenses – cloud and rain)

  1. descending air = high pressure, the result of:

a.  cooling from below which causes air to become heavier at the base and sink towards the surface.. or

b.  upper atmosphere convergence below the tropopause which forces the air downwards

Descending air is associated with dry conditions ( descending air heats up)

The diagram below gives a general idea of how that works. Air in a low pressure cell rises into the upper atmosphere until it reaches the boundary with the troposphere ( the tropopause) where it is prevented from rising and moves sideways. Being much colder and/ or where there is upper atmosphere convergence, the air sinks back to the surface creating a circuit if you like.

 

Fig 1

3.  Surface winds move from high pressure to low pressure

What controls the monsoon

 There are three processes at work and because they operate semi-independently of one another it makes the understanding of how the monsoon operates tricky.

  1. The Inter – Tropical Convergence Zone ( ITCZ ) and the way it moves explains the seasonal reversal of winds over the Indian Ocean basin; the change from the South West Monsoon to the North east Monsoon
  2. The ENSO Pacific Ocean events (EL Nino and La Nina) impact on the Indian Ocean by causing winds and rainfall to shift around in response to what happens in the Pacific Ocean
  3. The Indian Ocean Dipole where changes to  Sea Surface temperatures (SST’s)  also re-organise circulation patterns in the Indian Ocean

The Inter – Tropical Convergence Zone ( ITCZ )

The ITCZ is a zone of rising air (Low Pressure) located around the equator where the water (SST’s) is warmest. This is convective uplift. Rising air is associated with cloud formation and rain. At around 30 degrees of latitude either side of the ITCZ are regions of descending air. The sub-tropical high pressure belts. Surface winds blow from the high pressure belts inwards towards the ITCZ.

Fig 2. Global Circulation Patterns

Notice the don’t flow at right angles to the equator. The actually move as curved lines; north -east to south – west in the northern hemisphere, ( The North East Trade winds) and south – east to north west in the southern hemisphere (the South East Trade winds). This is due to the coriolis force; check it out here.

So why do winds migrate?

  • Remember, the SST’s control the location of the ITCZ. As the sun (which heats the ocean) moves north in the northern summer, it follows the highest SST’s will migrate north and that drags the ITCZ north.It also follows that the reverse will happen in the southern summer and the ITCZ will migrate southward.

Fig 3 The migration of the ITCZ

  • Now that is going to have an impact on the pattern of surface winds, as this simple diagram shows;

Fig. 4

and what this shows is that:

  • in January the N.E. Trades are pulled south of the Equator, deflecting to the left of their path. This is the North east Monsoon.In July the opposite occurs.
  • The S.E. Trades are pulled across the equator, and as the coriolis forces deflects the wind to the right of its path  instead of being S.E. trades they become S.W monsoon winds.

Figure 5 is a more detailed version of the process.

Fig 5

Notice the region of high pressure in the southern Indian Ocean. This is called the Mascarene High; for more try out this link. I will get back to this later in the blog.

So the migration of the ITCZ explains the seasonal reversal of wind patterns and broadly when that happens. However, it doesn’t explain why both the North East and the South West monsoons are so variable in terms of how much rain falls. That is because there are other forces at play which have a direct impact on the pattern of SST’s which in turn control surface air pressure and winds.

They are

  1. El Nino/La Nina events
  2. The Indian Ocean Dipole which has three phases; positive, negative and neutral
The influence of El Nino / La Nina on the monsoon

El Nino is a Pacific Ocean event, right? Well yes it is, but what happens in the Pacific Ocean has a knock on effect on the circulation patterns in the Indian Ocean; and it is complicated.

A.  More backgound: The Walker Circulation Pattern

The Walker circulation is an ocean-based system of air circulation that influences weather and is the result of the difference in surface pressure and temperature over the western and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Normally, the air over the tropical western Pacific is warm and wet with a low pressure system, (rising air) and the cool and dry eastern Pacific lie under a high pressure system (descending air).

This creates a pressure gradient and causes surface air to move east to west, from high pressure in the eastern Pacific to low pressure in the western Pacific. Higher up in the atmosphere,west-east winds move in the reverse direction to complete the circulation.

Fig 6 ENSO neutral

What you need to notice is that there is a major zone of uplift over south east Asia. Also note the area of descending air over the Middle East and the weaker uplift zone over East Africa. That helps to maintain a predominant west to east surface air flow over the Indian Ocean Basin which reinforces the monsoon.

So if you are ok with that then let’s look at how the El Nino upsets everything;

B.  ENSO events; El Nino and La Nina

El Nino is an ocean sea surface temperature event that is now pretty well understood. During El Nino events the normal Walker circulation pattern weakens, allowing warmer water to migrate eastwards towards the coast of South America. At the same time the main zone of uplift (low pressure) moves towards the central Pacific and in the western Pacific the surface airflow reverses to become west to east.

Notice now that there is descending air (high pressure) over South East Asia, and a strengthened zone of upfift over East Africa. The net effect is to establish an easterly airflow over the Indian Ocean, working against the South West Monsoon in particular.

Fig 7

So what you might expect is that in El Nino years the South West Monsoon is weaker over South Asia. This in turn can lead to reduced rainfall, and possibly, drought conditions.

La Nina is the reverse of El Nino so far as the Pacific Ocean circulation is concerned. Here the warmer water moves into the western pacific intensifying the zone of uplift over South East Asia ; the cell moves westwards effectively. Notice the zone of uplift over East Africa has gone.. bad news for those areas.. but the west to east airflow over the Indian Ocean pattern strengthens intensifying the South West Monsoon.

Fig 8

So to summarise so far: the two influences on rainfall we have looked at are

  1. The movement of the ITCZ
  2. El Nino/La Nina

It is worth noting that these events act independently of one another..

But now we have to add the third element; The Indian Ocean Dipole

C.  The Indian Ocean Dipole

 First identified in 1999, the Indian Ocean Dipole refers to spatial differences in sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean. There are three phases:

  • A neutral phase; when the SST is broadly the same across the tropical ocean basin.
  • The positive phase; this is where there is cooler than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and warmer than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean.

Fig 9

Increased convection over the western Indian Ocean (warmer air rise = low pressure = rain) has a knock on effect for the monsoon; why?

ok so remember that the SW Monsoon rules in May – August; the ITCZ migrates northward and the winds blowing from the SE become south westerlies when they are dragged across the equator into the northern hemisphere. ( check out figs 3&4 ) Plus being warmer the relative humidity of the air is increased. This should mean the monsoon intensifies

  • The negative phase; this is where there is warmer than normal water in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and cooler than normal water in the tropical western Indian Ocean.

Fig 10

Here the pattern reverses. To the west of India there is a zone of descending air which surpresses the moisture content of the surface winds and leads to lower rainfall.

 

D. Putting it all together

These three influences don’t necessarily synchronise with one another and are pretty much independent of one another as well.

Generally ENSO impacts the Indian Ocean by re-organising the atmospheric circulation but so does the Indian Ocean Dipole.

So

  • El Nino = drought
  • La Nina = enhanced monsoon
  • Positive Dipole = enhanced monsoon
  • Negative Dipole = surpressed monsoon

But as I wrote earlier.. it now gets tricky.

  1.  Don’t forget the system can also be in neutral!

2.  Not only that but the ENSO and Dipole events vary independantly, in intensity and impact.

Last point; various phases of both ENSO and the IOD can occur concurrently but at different relative strengths. Confused yet?

One example; a moderate El Nino such as occurred in 1997 should have lead to a poor monsoon over India but it didnt. this was because it was outweighed in influence by a stronger positive IOD event and in 1997/8 India received above average rainfall. This puzzled many meteorologists and led to the discovery of the IOD in 1999.

So what doe the evidence show? The following table illustrates how the different events have come together to affect the monsoon in recent years.

An IOD event can offset the impact of El Nino or La Nina although in 2004 it was El Nino that “won”.

Impact of ENSO events

 

year occurrence Impact % normal monsoon rainfall
2004 El Nino Drought 88
2005 Neutral Normal 101
2006 Neutral/positive IOD Normal 103
2007 La Nina Excess 110
2008 La Nina/negative IOD Above normal 105
2009 El Nino Severe drought 79
2010 La Nina/negative IOD Normal 100
2011 La Nina Normal 104
2012 El Nino/Positive IOD below normal 92
2013 Neutral above normal 106

 

So that’s what it comes down to.. a dynamic system driven by variations in sea surface temperature which drive atmospheric circulation patterns.

The complicating factors are that:

  • The time spans between ENSO events are not even.
  • The ENSO events vary in strength.
  • Occasionally the IOD intervenes

Looking then at all of this: It does shed some light, however, on why monsoon rainfall is highly variable and, therefore, so difficult to forecast. It also may help us to understand why South Asia is prone to periodic drought; the subject of the next article.

Footnote: Don’t forget Global Warming!!

According to Dr. Evan Weller abased at Monsah University in Australia global warming is set to complicate matters even more.

As climate changes, so sea surface temperatures will rise, but the increase won’t be even. Some regions will warm more than other regions. Over the eastern Indian Ocean, the waters to the north are predicted to warm faster than those in the south. This will have the effect of  pushing the ITCZ further north over the eastern Indian Ocean. It will also affect the SST  gradient north to south and that impacts on pressure differences and ultimately circulation patterns. The question is how will this interact with ENSO and IOD events and what effect will that have on the climate of South Asia. It may well serve to intensify the south west monsoon but there is no agreement on that at the moment. It is also possible that the location of the warmer water pool in the Indian Ocean (both positive and negative phases) may shift in location and this could also affect the local surface wind patterns. There is still much that is not understood!

The South Asian Monsoon; same as it ever was?

What is happening to the Indian Ocean monsoon? Has it become less predictable? Is it becoming affected by global warming? and finally, are droughts in Sri Lanka getting worse as a result?

The monsoon rains are important not only for agriculture in the region but also power generation.  Sri Lanka generates around 40% of its electricity from H.E.P. for example. So getting an understanding of how the monsoon seasons work is really quite important for a whole range of reasons.

a.  In the first of three linked articles I am going to be analysing rainfall and drought data to find out what is actually going on.

b.  The second article will look at what drives the monsoon, in particular the interplay of 3 factors and how they lead to changing patterns of sea surface temperature ( SST ), pressure and wind patterns, and how this affects rainfall. The three phenomena are:

  • The migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ( ITCZ )
  • The El Nino/La Nina events which occur in the Pacific Ocean ( ENSO )
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD )

c.  The third article will focus on patterns of drought in Sri Lanka.

Analysing Rainfall: getting the data

For this article I am using rainfall data for 4 stations; Batticaloa, Jaffna, Colombo and Galle. I had data for the period 2000 – 2015 and added to that data for the same locations for the period 1985-90. (I would have liked more ie; 1980 – 2000 but I couldn’t access the data).

So my sample size is  small and skewed towards the later period but it does give some indication of trends.

I chose some simple statistical methods to analyse the data;  I looked at each month in turn  over the 15 year period and calculated for each month and for each station:

  • the mean rainfall
  • standard deviation
  • coefficient of variation; it was this measure that I was really looking for; see below:

The coefficient of variation  ( Cv )is a measure of the spread of data that describes the amount of variability relative to the mean. It is calculated by dividing the standard deviation by the mean.

values close to zero indicate that the the data set shows a lower degree of variability and vice versa; In the results section  I will give just the Cv (not the mean or SD )

So if the data shows a Cv of say 0.50 what that suggests is that for any one year  the actual rainfall received will be in a wide range: 50% above and below the mean. Let’s say average rainfall is 500mm for a month then with a Cv of 0.5  the actual rainfall could be expected to fall within a wide band 250 mm to 750 mm.

Not very predictable.

I carried out the same calculation for the 1985-90 periods so that I could compare the two. I also looked at the pattern of rainfall through the year to see if it changes at all. I wanted to know the following:

  1. How variable is the annual rainfall total from year to year for each station
  2. For any given month how variable is the rainfall total over the 15 year period, and in comparison with the shorter 1985-90 period.
  3. Whether the amount of rainfall during the monsoon periods changing and if so how?
  4. Whether the distribution of monthly rainfall changed significantly over the period; is the monsoon coming earlier or later?

 

The location of the 4 weather stations

 

The monsoon seasons in Sri Lanka;

There are four monsoon seasons in Sri Lanka:

Period Name Comment Regions Affected
March – Mid May First Inter-monsoon (FIM) limited impact
May-July South West Monsoon (SWM) S.W. Winds Heavy rain Southern Coast, South West, West
October- November Second Inter-monsoon (SIM) S.W. winds Heavy rain and tropical cyclones possible South and South West, East coast
November – December North East Monsoon (NEM) North east Winds North and East

That has an impact on the rainfall distribution for different parts of the country;

  1. Colombo and Galle  in the south west of Sri Lanka both show two rainfall peaks during the year coinciding with the SWM and SIM periods.  (not one as I guess many studnets living in Europe ans Notice that the rainfall for SIM is higher on average than for the SWM; not what you would expect from the text books?

                                                                                                           SWM                                            SIM

note: what becomes apparent is that where the monsoon seasons are concerned you cannot generalise; Sri Lanka is different from the sub continent of India. Even within India there are significant departures from the generalised “norm”; so the lesson is not to accept broad generalisations from text books where climate is concerned.

 

  1. Batticaloa is on the east coast and has a different rainfall pattern; one that is dominated by the NEM.

                                                                                                                                                                       NEM

note the vertical scales on the two graphs are not the same; the graphs are there for illustrative purposes only

Of the two, Batticaloa looks like it is the most vulnerable to drought for two reasons;

  1. there is a long dry period from March through to November when temperatures and evapotranspiration rates are high
  2. The east coast is heavily dependent therefore on the NEM; if it fails to produce enough rain in November and December, or fails altogether then there is much less groundwater available for crops following on. Reservoirs (called tanks locally) and rivers dry up.

 

when the rains fail

What the data shows

Looking at the data there are a couple of general points to begin with:

  1. The onset of each monsoon period is pretty much fixed give or take a week or so although there is a suggestion that the SWM is arriving slightly earlier ie late April / early May rather than later in May.
  2. Actual rainfall for any given month varies quite substantially from average values for that month. The coefficient of variation is high.  That is true for both the 1985 period and also the 2000-2015 period. So the monthly averages don’t mean a great deal. Rainfall is variable for any given month and from year to year. From the data I have, I suggest it always has been.
  3. The NEM is a changeable event; some years wetter some years drier., but not predictable
  4. The SWM rainfall is on the increase since 2007
  5. In the North and East the dry season seems to be getting drier, if you add that to a significantly lower monsoon rainfall  total as in 2005 – 8, it can spell big problems for farmers: in particular, drought.

 

Which bring me on to the last point in part one; why is the rainfall so unpredictable? The reason is that there are several factors at play.

  • Rainfall in the Indian Ocean basin is determined by wind direction; which in turn is heavily influenced by the migration of the ITCZ.
  • However it is also influenced by two other phenomena; which are at least partially dependent on one another..
  1. The ENSO or El Nino event
  2. The 3 phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole;

all of which affect sea surface temperatures, and therefore pressure and wind systems.

Simple it isn’t?

As a taster then here is something to be thinking about.

ENSO events:

weak            2004/5, 2006/7

moderate      2002/3, 2009/10

very strong    2015/6

IOD dipole:

positive:         2006, 2012

negative:        2010

You could have a look at the summary of rainfall data above and see where there may be potential match – ups.

Part 2 looks at how it all works

Appendix: Summary  of Results

( for those who are interested in the detail; I have the raw data available on request )

  1. Batticaloa; main rainfall season is the North East Monsoon (NEM)

The average Cv for 1985-90 is 0.67; the average Cv for 2000-2015 is 1.01

However the Cv for the NEM is marginally lower for the period 2000-15

Concentrating on the period 2000-2015:

  1. Cv is higher during March to October (dry season); generally >1.0
  2. Cv falls slightly during the NEM season; between 0.38 and 0.56
  3. overall drier years in 2001, and 2005/6/7:  ? drought ?
  4. July is the driest month and there is a suggestion that July is becoming drier over the period: (2000-07 av. 35.75; 08-15 av 24.7)
  5. The NEM generally starts in November although in 2004,2011,and 2015 it arrived in September
  6. December is the wettest month
  7. NEM rainfall was less for the period 2005-2008 and also 2013
  8. 2011 was the wettest year during the period at 3581mm (80% above average)
  1. Jaffna: main rainfall season is the North East Monsoon  (NEM) plus possibly the Second Inter-monsoon (SIM)

The average Cv for 1985-90 is high; 0.86 and is even higher in 00-15; 0.97

Looking at the period 2000-15

  1. Cv is much higher during drier months; range 0.72 – 1.46 and lower during the NEM at around 0.47
  2. Cv is also lower at 0.44 during October (SIM)
  3. drier years were; 2002/3, 2005/6, 2009, 2012/3
  4. June/July are the driest months and are becoming drier; 2002-7 av 48.5mm, 08-15 av 18.4mm
  5. NEM arrives in November in 12 of 15 years
  6. November is wettest month
  7. NEM rainfall was much lower 2006-8 and 2013/4; 2009/11 NEM rainfall was above average
  8. 2015 was the wettest year in the period at 1839 mm but was only 10% above the average for the NEM

A possible question to investigate is the degree to which Jaffna may be affected by the SIM given its location.

Common to both

  • high variability from year to year especially in the dry season
  • decreasing rainfall in June/July
  • drier 2005-8 and 2013
  1. Colombo; affected by 3 seasons. First Inter Monsoon (FIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Second Inter Monsoon (SIM); although FIM impact is negligible

at around 0.06 the Cv for both periods (85-90 and 00-15) is high

Looking at the period 2000-15

  1. Cv is lower during both the SWM and the SIM (0.32 and 0.43)
  2. drier years overall in 2004 and 2011
  3. No significantly drier years apart from 2011 which had a lower SIM
  4. January and February showing decreasing rainfall; example Jan av. 00-07 av 108.4, 08-15 av 75.1
  5. July is the driest month October/November (SIM) the wettest
  6.  September marks SIM arrival except 2005 and 2011
  7. April/May consistently marks start of SWM
  8. signs that onset of SWM  shows higher average: 00-07 av 195mm, 08-15 av 371mm not quite so marked for SIM
  9. 2010 was the wettest year at 3370mm (43% above average)
  1. Galle: affected by 3 seasons. First Inter Monsoon (FIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Second Inter Monsoon (SIM); although FIM impact is negligible

In comparison with Colombo the Cv’s are slightly lower than for Colombo but still >0.5 for both periods but there is no significant difference between the Cv values for the two time periods.

Looking at the period 2000-15

  1. Cv is does not drop during SWM although it does so for the SIM
  2. 2001/2 and 2013 were drier years,
  3. SWM shows increasing average 00-07 av 162.3 mm; 08-15 av 268.1 with similar increase for May; The SIM data does not show a trend betond a slightly drier October and a slightly wetter November
  4. January shows a decreasing average from 00-07 av 116mm to  08-15 av 82mm
  5. January is the driest month, October is the wettest month
  6. October marks the arrival of the SIM
  7. April/ May marks the arrival of the SWM
  8.  As with Colombo signs are that the onset of the SWM is bring heavier rainfall; 00-07 av for April was 162mm for May was 241mm and for 08-15 av for April increased to 268mm and 298mm respectively.
  9. 2007 and 2010 were the wettest years (32% above average)

Common to Colombo and Galle

  • rainfall is decreasing in January
  • rainfall is increasing in April; onset of SWM is bringing heavier rainfall
  • suggestion that monsoon is getting earlier

 

 

 

 

 

Colombo garbage mountain collapse: time for the government to act

Colombo generates well over 1000 tons of garbage every day most of which ends up at the Meethotumulla rubbish dump on the outskirts of the city., because until now there has been no alternative site for waste disposal in the city (if you discount the canals that is; which many residents seem to see as an alternative waste dump)

STOP PRESS: action at last

On April 14th a large section of the dump collapsed onto the surrounding settlement resulting in an estimated 28 deaths, ( although this figure may well rise) displacing a further 625 people and extensively damaging 145 houses.

The sheer scale of the dump, which dominates the skyline around should have been enough to warn authorities of the need to take action.

 

source: Hiru News

 The dump contains an estimated 24 million tons of garbage (made up of all types of waste) rising to upwards 90 metres and covers around 7 hectares. It dominates the entire area.

In May 2016 the dump had to be closed for 10 days due to extensive flooding and the Colombo Municipal Council was forced to obtain a court order to remove 3000 tons of accumulated waste to the Piliyandala site to the south of the city.

Questions:

  • Why was the  site allowed to be imposed on the low income residents of Meethotumulla in the first place? It wouldn’t happen in Colombo 7 would it?
  • Why despite continued protest and concerns expressed by local residents over health issues and the instability of the dump, has nothing been done?
  • If the Aruwakkala site is not viable, what contingency plans exist?

On 15th April, The Daily Mirror (Sri Lanka) published a scathing attack on the authorities, by the pressure group; Decent Lanka 2015,  in the wake of this latest disaster the headline of which reads: “Dump, dumber, dumbest” The article lays the blame squarely at the feet of local and national politicians: please click on this link and read the article:

Key quotes (source Daily Mirror. lk)

“This tragedy has been in the making for over eight years now due to the callous and irresponsible attitudes of both the political leadership and the bureaucracy.”  The article lists a whole catalogue of broken promises and failure to act an is worth a read through if only to re-inforce a belief that politicians are simply not interested in the lives of ordinary people”
 “This is all about how public policy is shaped without public concerns taken into account. It is all about planning without needs assessments and professional and technical inputs.  It is all about a dumb and corrupt bureaucracy tying up with equally ignorant and corrupt politicians in finding the largest source of funding as first priority to draw up proposals thereafter.”
A little bit of theory

The relevance of water in this context, is that percolating water destabilises loosely compacted mounds of garbage and slope failure is always going to be the most likely outcome. The surprise is that this disaster has taken the authorities by surprise. It was a disaster waiting to happen.

The garbage dump would have become saturated by water percolating down through the unconsolidated waste.Therefore, the garbage and the mound would have become “top heavy”. Water seeping out at the base of the tip would have further de-stabilised the base of the mound, and the slope failed.

To quote American Geophysical Union (AGU): blog Dave Petley

“It is undeniable that this site was unsafe.  The garbage mound is clearly too high and too steep, inviting a rotational failure.  With houses so close to the toe of the slope the hazards were severe.. This is another case in which we know and understand the hazards, but fail to manage them.  The results are once again tragic.”

This photo taken by the Sri Lankan Airforce shows clearly what happened. The base of the slop failed and half of the mound fell away onto the houses below.

The question is not how this disaster could have been prevented BUT:

  1. Why the dump was allowed to grow to become this size in the first place?
  2. Given the continuing complaints and disquiet about the site why has nothing been done since the last protests by local residents in 2016?

I found this extract in Ceylon Today:

The Ministry of Megapolis and the Western Province Chief Minister are at loggerheads over the Meethotamulla Garbage Dump, says Provincial Council Member from Kolonnawa Saliya Wickremesinghe. He noted that last May Western Province Chief Minister Isura Devapriya had promised a solution, which involved negotiations with a British company that provided waste management solutions. Speaking to Ceylon Today, Wickremesinghe added that Devapriya then promised to commence work at the site within six months from last May. So far, the people of Meethotamulla had not witnessed any progress.

A case of “fiddling while Rome burns” to borrow a metaphor.

It would be unfair though,  to blame the lack of a solution on the current government alone. This dump dates back to days of the previous regime. So both should shoulder the responsibility along with Colombo Municipal Council who administer the site. The fact is that nothing has been done to make this dump safe, and so the worst fears of the local residents have been realised.

What this latest episode does do, however, is to bring into sharp focus the absence of any coherent solution to Colombo’s garbage crisis. In another blog I examined one possible solution; the Aruwakkala project. However, even this proposed solution is not straightforward and raises significant environmental concerns over its viability; click on this link to article

the proposed site for the garbage dump close to Puttalam

Currently there are no secure and safe Sanitary Landfill sites in Sri Lanka and incineration is not considered to be viable due to the high moisture content of much of the waste.

So to quote a phrase: “what to do?”

It is an inconvenient truth that sanitary landfill sites will need to be found for the growing volume of urban waste. If the government’s plans for Megapolis in Western province materialise then even more waste is likely to be generated in future. Planning needs to begin now!

Perhaps the authorities could look again at incineration plants but they come with their own “health warnings” in terms of pollutant gases escaping into the atmosphere

Otherwise the accent has to be on generating less waste and recycling more of the waste that is produced. Some community recycling schemes have been implemented amongst middle and lower income communities, for example: Community Based Solid Waste Management Project in Matale and Ratnapura Cities undertaken by the Colombo based NGO Sevanatha (www.sevanatha.org.lk). The fact is that:

  • 60% of wase is bio-degradeable., and can produce compost, biogas and fertiliser
  • metal waste, glass waste and paper waste can be recycled

However, it doesn’t get done, partly because communities don’t buy in to these projects unless they can see the potential for some financial gain. Partly because the political will is not there.

And there are other constraints:

Issues working against effective waste collection and disposal
  1. Local authorities don’t have resources/skills to develop effective waste management policies
  2. Poor on-site labour management; inefficient working practices
  3. Meeting costs of operations; no provision for recycling, separation, composting in local authority budgets L
  4. Low returns from recycled waste make recycling unprofitable without subsidies
  5. Bureaucratic delays slow everything down

It is unlikely that one solution alone will be enough to deal with what is fast becoming a crisis. Responsible land fill, incineration and recycling are all aspects of the solution. What it does need is for politicians to focus on finding a solutions rather than dispute with one another. It is all very well to develop ambitious plans for a brighter tomorrow for Sri Lanka; viz the Megapolis project (see elsewhere in this blog); however, they need to get the simple basics of good environmental management right first.

Required Reading: this excellent article published on 22/04/17 in the Daily Mirror
Gone to Waste

Some useful references

Climbing out of the garbage dump : Envirtonmental Foundation

Sevanatha: http://www.sevanatha.org.lk

The headline photo: source Sri Lankan Air Force

The human – elephant conflict: does it have to be like this?

Every year on average over 200 elephants are killed and 60 to 80 people lose their lives as aresult of elephant attacks. With maybe no more than 5000 to 6000 elephants left in the wild in Sri Lanka time seems to be running out for the Sri Lankan wild elephant.

At one time wild elephants could be found in most parts of the island. Now they are confined mostly to the north-central region of the island. They were driven out by hunting; for example on the Horton Plains where elephants once used to be plentiful, as well as the land clearances which created the vast tea and rubber estates.

Elephants and People; the old days

The traditional agriculture of the intermediate and dry zones is called Chena. It is a version of slash and burn. Chena cultivation is dependent on the rainfall, so at the onset of the monsoon, a patch of forest was cleared and cultivated for about 4 to 5 months and then abandoned. This then created low scrub/ woodland ( secondary regeneration) which is the habitat the elephants prefer

So, traditional Chena cultivation was compatible with maintaining the elephant population and, in fact, meant that people and elephants didn’t come into contact as often as they do now. The elephants simply moved on to abandoned and regenerating forest when the farmers moved on to open up another patch of forest.

What has changed?

The extension of sedentary agriculture in the centre and east of the country which began in earnest in the 1970’s was the single change that brought elephants and people into close contact and which has put the elephants at  risk of extinction.

The main causal factor is the  Mahaweli River Development Scheme (an irrigation scheme) Aimed at agricultural development it was begun in the 1960’s but accelerated after 1977.

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The Mahaweli scheme

The project had a number of inter-related aims:

  • to reduce growing population pressure and landlessness in the wet zone
  • to expand rice production and reduce dependence on imports
  • to develop hydro electricity to power new industrial development
  • opening up new employment opportunities to landless farmers

Settlers were encouraged onto the newly irrigated lands with the promise of land, a house and irrigation water. Apart from rice, the staple of Sri Lanka, farmers were encouraged to diversify into sugar cane, soya, corn, vegetables, fruit and cash crops.

The area under rice cultivation almost doubled to 87,000 hectares whilst rice production rose from 164 million tonnes p.a. to 471m tonnes p.a.

Land under other crops also doubled in area as a result of the  programme. However large areas of secondary forest were lost and the traditional chena system was largely  abandoned because it was not profitable.

and you have to question why large areas around Udawalawe in the South have been turned over to sugar cane production and at what cost? Surely a crop that Sri Lanka doesn’t really need; ask the 20% or so who are type 2 diabetics for example…

And the result:

  • the traditional elephant ranges have been reduced in size and become fragmented.
  • the traditional migration routes have beenblocked off to the elephants
  • with the traditional source of food for elephants (secondary forest) now not so readily available to elephants,  their food supply diminishing and migration routes blocked the elephants raid villages for food which is how the conflict is created.

The Farmer’s story

 Kalawagala is a small agricultural village with approximately 200 + families and a population of around 1200. The farm economy is centered on padi (or rice) cultivation, vegetables and fruit.

Hinnimama is typical; along with his family he farms around 3 acres and grows padi rice plus melon, pumpkin, okra, sweet corn, green grains long beans sesame and brinjal. Some farmers may also keep a few buffalo from which they sell curd.

 

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Apart from rice which is irrigated all the rest rely on the seasonal monsoon.

He would expect to grow crops in three cycles through the year (which he calls Chena) ; the more water demanding crops first and so on, and make around 100,000 rupees plus sales of rice surplus; each cycle yields around 30000 rupees dependent on amount of rain.

For Hinnimama there are 2 problems:

  1. When rainfall is not enough his yields take a tumble, and his income falls.
  2. Elephant herds invade the village land on a regular basis;  one raid can completely decimate his crop leading to serious loss of income

He told me that:

  • in the last 2 years alone 8 villagers have been killed as they attempted to drive marauding elephants away from their fields
  • groups of elephants (ranging from 2 or 3 to over a dozen) raid the village fields most nights
  • when they come for food elephants will completely destroy a farmers’ crops with the loss of the potential revenue; one night of destruction costs LKR 30,000 or more: this would be the equivalent of 1/3rd of the annual revenue

There are electric fences surrounding the village, which are supposed to keep out the elephants, BUT the elephants kick them over causing the electric current to fail and they walk through the gaps. (one ranger told me he had even seen an elephant jump a fence). The fact that the fences are poorly maintained doesn’t help Hinnimama to have much confidence that the Department of Wildlife Conservation (who are responsible for managing the situation) can do much to help him.

As a result, Hinnimama sleeps out in temporary shelters on his fields most nights. He has little choice and he feels he has no alternative but to drive away the elephants with whatever means he can employ. These methods can include shouting, using firecrackers or home made explosives, raising the voltage on the electric fences, poisoning, digging pits and possibly (although he wouldn’t say so) shooting the elephants.

The elephants story

Recent research has uncovered a lot more information about the Sri Lankan elephant:

  • Elephants don’t migrate far either seasonally or annually and their ranges are small in size (roughly 50 – 150 km2 on average).
  • Elephants follow the same migration routes (elephant corridors) year after year.
  • Ranges and corridors are well established and pre date human settlement.
  • Ranges don’t always match up with protected areas, however. Around 70% of elephants live outside protected areas.

z_p-15-homogeneous-02

from the Sunday Times

To accommodate there elephants the number and size e of protected areas needs to be much bigger

  • Elephants prefer open low canopy woodland and grassland and disturbed habitats such as abandoned Chena lands which are the result of clearance and secondary plant succession.
  • A single wild elephant consumes approximately 150 kg of food per day. A hundred elephants would require 15,000 kg of food per day, and a large area of woodland every day.

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elephant country

Elephants were well established before commercial farming pushed into the interior. In simple terms they were there first. However, they have been squeezed out of their traditional “range” lands. Their alternatives have been shrinking every year.

  1. Between 1948 and 1975 as a result of the Mahaweli Project; 1/3rd of the natural forest was lost due to clearance for agriculture. The depletion of the elephants main food source increased pressure on remaining natural food supplies to the extent that the elephants were forced to search elsewhere for food.
  2. A combination of fragmentation of habitat and blocked migration routes have created major pressures on the elephant population. Land was allocated to settlers by politicians (seeking electoral advantage), which blocked the traditional elephant migration routes or corridors.
  3. Increased numbers of cattle and water buffalo have further reduced the amount of grassland available to elephants.
  4. The disappearance of the traditional Chena (shifting cultivation) system will mean that through natural succession, habitat in many of the protected areas will become progressively less able to support high densities of elephants because they thrive on secondary forest created by Chena cultivation.
  5. An inadvertent introduction of the plant lantana camara into Sri Lanka has had an almost catastrophic impact on the vegetation in Udawalawe, one of the protected “elephant homelands”. The plant is toxic to elephants and highly invasive. It is currently replacing the endemic vegetation at a rapid rate resulting in significant habitat and disastrous food loss for the elephant population.

The net result has been that elephants and villagers are increasingly competing for the same space with disastrous results all round.

Managing the Human – Elephant conflict

So far the main response has been to try to keep elephants and farmers apart. This has been attempted in the following ways:

  1. The irrigated and resettled lands have been protected from elephants with electric fences.
  2. Protected areas and national parks have been created for the elephant population. Elephants living outside of the protected areas are captured and relocated into the protected areas where possible.

Problems

  1. However, so far this strategy hasn’t worked too well. Elephants break down fences which results in major problems for villagers. The fact that those fences are poorly maintained is a major source of frustration to the villagers.

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a fence pushed over by an elephant

  1. Nor does moving captured the elephants into the protected areas doesn’t make ecological sense; in effect this is a policy of creating elephant concentration camps. This is because:
  • Protected areas can support only a certain number of elephants (the carrying capacity), which is determined by the amount of resources such as food and water available for elephants. Eventually there will be too many elephants in each “safe zone”
  • Translocating a large number of elephants that normally range outside protected areas into protected areas just adds to the elephant numbers, and increases the pressure on the habitat leading to habitat destruction.
  • Any attempt at managing protected areas to provide more food for more elephants would require a vast amount of funds and resources that would have to be spent indefinitely. It would also result in a massive loss of biodiversity, as a large number of fauna and flora, many of them endemics, require relatively undisturbed forest. Simply put it is not sustainable
  • In any case most elephants range outside of the protected areas or maybe their ranges are partly in and partly out of protected areas. So you can move them into a protected area but the chances are that they will take off at some point and go back to the areas they are used to ranging in.

The Main Point:

Translocation of elephants into protected areas keeping them there and finding enough food for them is just not sustainable; a new approach is needed.

New Management for Old

One such approach is suggested by The Centre for Conservation and Research in Sri Lanka:

  • Manage the protected areas and their elephant populations as the core of future elephant conservation.
  • Manage areas outside protected areas so that together with the protected areas, they form a contiguous landscape for elephants.

They argue that Management of outside areas can be achieved by regulating Chena cultivation, so that:

  • Traditional cycling regimes are preserved and conversion to permanent cultivation is prevented.
  • Providing facilities to chena farmers, so that they derive a direct conservation benefit from elephants being outside protected areas, and costs of having elephants in their area, such as crop depredation, are offset.”
They argue further that “such a conservation strategy, … will benefit both elephants and humans, and will ensure the sustenance of a healthy elephant population in Sri Lanka, for the future.”

This means going back to a form of slash and burn; Chena. But Chena farmers would need to be financially supported and that does not appear to be a likely outcome. In any case would the government be able to persuade the second/third generation farmer/ settlers to accept this? It seems unlikely.

The Sri Lanka Wildlife Conservation Society (SLWCS) takes a more practical view.

The idea is to engage with people at the grassroots level:

Mission: “to build capacity, foster leadership and empower citizens to support sustainable, long term conservation success.”

They adopt a range of innovative approaches which are all aimed at helping the local people live in harmony, not in conflict with elephants, and which are sustainable.

Here is a summary of some of their projects:

  • Electric Fence Intrusion Alert System (eleAlert) monitors fences remotely and give early warning of elephant intrusion to villagers and fence damage to crews who can go and repair the breach.
  • An electric fence maintenance team was established in the 2,300-year-old Buddhist Temple, historic Somawathiya Chaitiya, in the North Central Province.
  • in Wasgamuwa, SLWCS formed a community organization to promote the cultivation of oranges. Elephants do not eat citrus, therefore farmers are less likely to lose their crops to elephant raids.; see Project Orange
  • A number of community based organizations for human elephant conflict mitigation, home garden development, and agro-forestry, have been established at Lahugala, Pottuvil and Panama in the Eastern Province.
  • microfinance is being made available to communities to enable them to diversify away from farming into other activities.
  • encouraging improved methods of dairy farming to raise yields not numbers of cattle which would reduce the demand on grassland resources
  • Ele bus: Saving elephants while helping people is at the heart of the SLWCS’ brand new “Ele-friendly Bus project.” The bus will buffer school children, farmers and other pedestrians from elephants (and vice versa) by providing safe transportation along a busy rural roadway that transects one of the region’s most important, ancient elephant corridors. In turn, fewer negative human-elephant encounters will occur, helping to keep people safe and elephants alive.

In one of the newer projects they are experimenting with beehive fences, where beehives are strung out along fence boundaries. Elephants stay away from bees and so the hope is that a network of such fences will deter elephants form invading farmers land

see: http://elephantsandbees.com/sri-lanka-beehive-fence-progress/

Summary

The future for elephants in Sri Lanka is far from secure. There are signs in the media and in various pronouncements from the authorities that the threat to the Sri Lankan elephant is now being taken increasingly seriously.

Tourism can  play a part. Around 20% of tourists visit Sri Lanka hoping to see elephants in the wild. What would the loss of the wild elephant do to the tourist trade? What does the decimation of the elephant population do for the image of Sri Lanka?

The key to protecting the elephant is a multi layered strategy;

  • collecting more date on elephant behaviour is needed to try to better understand elephant movement
  • strict conservation zones can be useful but only as one tool in the box
  • the adoption of the practices being trialled by the excellent Sri Lanka Wildlife Conservation Society
  • giving the villagers a stake in the future of the elephant by becoming more actively involved in elephant conservation; that also means giving the villagers a greater stake in tourism development and a greater say in how that management should take place.

If villagers can be helped to see the economic sense of maintaining the elephant population (I think arguments about biodiversity don’t cut much ice), then this may be the way forward in terms of putting a stop to the pointless and very sad loss of life we are seeing today.

Stop Press

Report from the Sri Lanka Wildlife Conservation Society is worth a real close look; check it out now

 

The plight of migrant workers in the Gulf

In 2014 an estimated 300,000 men and women left Sri Lanka to work primarily in the Gulf States. The majority of men went into the construction industry whilst the women accepted jobs as housemaids. They went because they wanted to provide for a better life for their families, and the government was happy for them to go; not least because the money they send back (remittances ) amounts to $7billion; or 9% of GDP.

What the migrants didn’t know or expect was that the contracts they were promised would never materialise and many of them would end up working in conditions which amount to modern slavery.

This recent report in the Sri Lankan Daily Mirror is a good place to start: www.dailymirror.lk/article/Fotune-favoured-Rani-from-the-jaws-of-death11936

Sri Lanka does not rank highly on the Global Slavery Index, yet pollsters estimate there are approximately 26,000 Sri Lankans trapped in a form of modern slavery in 2016;

My guess is that you might find this hard to believe, but that is because:

  1. Slavery is illegal, so it is either hidden tacitly ignored by the authorities or denied by the perpetrators. But in any case it goes unrecorded; one example Ask yourself next time you stop at the traffic lights in Colombo. Do the beggars you see keep the money you give them or are they forced to hand it over to  others in exchange for the most basic of food and shelter; in effect slaves. We could go on.. the case of sex workers would be another instance
  2. More importantly; most Sri Lankans trapped in slavery are not living in Sri Lanka but in The Gulf States
Facts and Figures: Migrant workers
  • An estimated 1.7 million Sri Lankans are employed abroad affecting 1 in 4 households.
  • A total of 300,413  left for employment in 2014 of which 63.2 were males and 37% were females
  •  80% of females were employed as domestic workers
  • The Middle East is the largest source of remittances: 60%
  • Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are their main destinations
Why they go

You can think of three groups of factors; geographers will already be familiar with them:

Push Factors:
  • Low incomes whether in rural or urban areas; not enough income to adequately support a young family. Even where there is relatively full employment, wages are low. A textile factory worker will not earn much more than 25000 rupees per month; not enough to sustain a comfortable way of life. The same is true of office workers. Few are paid a living wage.
  • Lack of opportunity for advancement
  • Political patronage at a local level
  • A general feeling that life must be better elsewhere
Pull Factors
  • the promise of high incomes
Facilitating factors
  • migration to the Middle East is a well trodden path; often an individual will know of people in their community who are already migrants; they hear the stories…
  • some migrants already have people living and working in the Gulf who can help them get jobs
  • local agents and their contacts who are active in local communities arranging documents
Plus, of course they have no idea of what is waiting for them when they get to their destination
Where they go and where they come from

The top destinations are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, The Emirates and Kuwait with smaller numbers heading to Oman and Jordan. Whilst Western province is the biggest exporter in terms of numbers; in terms of the % of the population it is, in fact Ampara Trincomalee and Puttalam who export the biggest % of their population; (around 3%) annually

Life for a domestic migrant worker in the Gulf States

The migrants are often recruited by unscrupulous and unregulated agents on the promise of high incomes. The agents or employers not only pay their fares, but also arrange for passports and visas, sometimes illegally.

Migrant labourers often receive a monetary advance as an incentive to work overseas. What they are not told, or don’t realise is that these incentives will bind them into debt upon arrival in their host country. Worse is to follow: recruitment agencies in the host country regularly commit fraud by changing the agreed upon job, employer, conditions, or remuneration after the worker’s arrival.

A recent report alleged that the police and other officials in Sri Lanka accept bribes, and some sub-agents reportedly work with officials to procure forged or modified documents, or genuine documents with falsified data, to facilitate travel abroad for those desperate for a better life. The problem is that these documents are not legal. The migrant enters a country with these documents and is immediately at the mercy of their employers who could report them at any moment.

The report also observed that the Sri Lankan government does not have the ability to regulate sub-agents under the SLBFE, which officials recognized as a problem contributing to trafficking.

The situation is made worse because the migrants have little knowledge of the situations they are going to end up in. For domestic workers in particular, this involves the Kefala system, which ties the domestic worker to one employer, effectively giving that employer full control over the migrant worker. (click on the link to check this out)

The reality is that the migrants end up in slavery. Their passports are often taken from them. Employers routinely pay well below what the workers were promised, and sometimes refuse to pay their workers at all. Housemaids in particular live under conditions similar to house arrest: subject to mistreatment, abuse and both physical and sometimes sexual violence.

Kuwaiti journalists attend a Human Rights Watch press conference in Kuwait City on October 6, 2010 announcing a new report that shows abuse of domestic workers in Kuwait is rising, and maids in the Gulf emirate face prosecution when they try to escape. AFP PHOTO/YASSER AL-ZAYYAT (Photo credit should read YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images)

This summary from Digital Commons says it all
  • Complaints: 12,061 of which 78% females
  • Physical and sexual harassment: 96% female
  • Not sent back at the end of contract: 92% female
  • Not payment of agreed wages: 81% female
  • Breach of contract: 62% female
  • in 2009 333 deaths of housemaids working abroad were recorded
  • 2009 survey states about housemaid returnees to Sri Lanka
  • 48% were assaulted by someone from the employer’s household
  • 52% were not paid the promised salary
  • 84% were not paid for their overtime work

The situation for the women who end up in domestic work can be grim and there are plenty of examples you can find for yourself by going online: For example have a look at:

rothna-saudi_arabic_mdw_op-ed-october_2015-photo

see link; serious violence in the Gulf States

this an extract from another victim’s story

“Even if I went to bed at 3:30 a.m., I had to get up by 5:30 a.m I had continuous work until 1:00 a.m., sometimes 3:00 a.m…. Once I told the employer, “I am a human like you and I need an hour to rest.” She told me, “You have come to work; you are like my shoes, and you have to work tirelessly.”

The conditions were getting worse. I told the employer that I wanted to leave but she would not take me to the agency. [Her husband] would say, “You want to go, you want to go?” and he would pull my hair and beat me with his hands. He went to the kitchen and took a knife and told me he would kill me, cut me up into little pieces, and put the little pieces of me in the cupboard By this time they owed me four months’ salary.

There are more and more innocent women going abroad, and planning to go. It is up to the women to care of themselves. The [Sri Lankan] government gets a good profit from us; they must take care of us. They must do more to protect us.”

Kumari Indunil, age 23, a former domestic worker in Kuwait

Qatar : The Plight of construction workers

This You Tube clip speaks for itself and needs nothing extra from me

So why is this happening?

Simple answer? Nobody cares!

  • So far as the domestic employers in the Arab world are concerned there is probably little that can be done to combat the blatant racism that exists or to combat an arrogant attitude which views servants as property, and is simply a reflection of the values and attitudes of wealthy Kuwaiti, Saudi, Qatari and Emirati society. They simply don’t see what they are doing wrong. Their servants are theirs to dispose of as they wish without threat of law; they are not viewed as equal human beings in any sense. This clip sums it up.
  • Migrant workers have no legal protection or legal rights in the countries where they work., plus they are usually unaware of what their rights are
  • Some feel that the exporting governments do little to put pressure on the host governments to remedy the situation and do little to support them when they get into difficulties
So what needs to be done?

To begin with  there is a need to collect data to improve understanding of:

  • who is migrating
  • from which villages
  • what factors govern their decision to migrate
  • what factors influence the choice of where they migrate
  • what role recruitment agents playing the migration process; how do they persuade people to move? Are agents regulated, audited or even licensed?

Mapping the results allows NGOs and government organisations to focus initially on areas which are hotspots of out-migration to the Gulf and then to develop a better understanding of the migration process.

After that there are two approaches that could be considered.

  1. Reduce the flow of migrants to the Gulf
  2. Improve the conditions for those who still want to go
Reducing the Flow
  1.  The obvious answer is to give people a positive reason NOT to migrate in search of work. Poverty is the driving force. Now the government would argue that only 8% of the population fall below the poverty line, but that line is drawn very low. Unemployment per se is not the issue. However, large numbers of Sri lankans earn less than 30,000 rupees per month; this is not a living wage, so what can be done? There are options:
  • a realistic minimum living wage for paid employment enshrined in law would be a start; companies making big profits on the back of cheap labour may not like that idea..
  • improved subsidies to farmers to raise their incomes; this could be paid for out of taxation if taxes were collected more efficiently.
  • looking at ways of decentralising economic activities from the large cities like Colombo, improving infrastructure and road connections in order to spread economic growth. The governments Megalopolis plan could be a large step towards achieving this

2.  Help local people to develop small scale businesses using cheap forms of credit and support from local NGO’s like Sevanatha and The Institute of Women in Management  and the women’s co-operative bank

check out the links and you will see that what they do is:

  • Equip leaders to negotiate with local authorities on behalf of their communities to improve their socio-economic conditions
  • Develop local credit /savings bank operations run by and for the local community (often by local women) which can fund small businesses locally
  • Support and encourage women to take a bigger role as community leaders or as small scale entrepreneurs.

What the above can do is help to create cohesive communities and develop viable economic alternatives to migration for local people.

3.  Educate people to the stark realities of life on a construction site in Qatar or imprisoned in a home in Saudi Arabia : a negative reason not to go.

  • set up groups led by victims to visit communities to tell their stories
  • disseminate material to vulnerable communities on the realities of working conditions in the Gulf: it could be illustrated books, video material, victim narratives
  • mobilise  the press to tell these stories and place the spotlight.

AT the same time pressure must come from politicians, NGO’s the media and local people to force the authorities to ensure all agents are properly registered and licensed via the SLBFE for example. The issue of licences must be on the basis of conditions, which are stringent, open, and subject to scrutiny and enshrined in law. All agents should be required to lodge a bond with the authorities to be used to meet the costs of repatriation, and loss of earnings where migrants fall foul of local practices in the Gulf and need to return home.

Unlicensed agents must be prosecuted, along with corrupt government officials and police, as must those who knowingly mislead clients and do not exercise a duty of care. At present very few licensed agents are audited and few are ever prosecuted.

b.  Addressing the situation in the Gulf States

 The surest way to force a change in attitudes amongst employers in the Gulf is to dramatically cut down the flow of migrant labour. In that respect the SLBFE should be taking pro-active steps to warn migrants of the potential situations they could find themselves in.

In the meantime: there are issues to overcome:

  • governments from source countries like that of Sri Lanka (India, Nepal, Pakistan also) need to become more pro-active in lobbying host governments to ensure their citizens are protected.
  • the appalling nature of working conditions in the construction industry requires immediate attention. British companies engaged in building stadia in Qatar who appear to be indifferent at best to the plight of workers on the construction sites should be prosecuted under  the Modern Slavery Act where they are failing to heed the warnings of the British Government over working conditions.

Steps that should be taken:

  1. The dismantling of the Kefala system immediately.
  2. Migrants must be allowed to retain their passports at all times.
  3. Migrant workers must be afforded through their visa status full rights as they would apply to resident nationals, enshrined in law.
  4. Workers need to be better educated in terms of their rights as migrant workers. Lack of awareness on legal procedures, lax law enforcement  and the inability to communicate in the host country’s local languages all leave migrants vulnerable to exploitation.
  5. Employers whether companies or private households should be prosecuted where clear human rights abuses have occurred and must be made to honour the contracts they signed again under penalty of law.
  6. In the case of Qatar all countries engaged in qualifying for the next World Cup should threaten to boycott the event unless conditions change.

Within the Gulf States the embassies of the “exporting” countries should at least have staff fully trained to support abused victims. There should be a list of all addresses where migrants are living; regular checks made on them visits to ensure health and well being, wages are being paid, and they are not subject to mistreatment or abuse.

Key legal reforms are needed to ensure the most vulnerable workers, particularly domestic workers, who must be covered by basic labour law protection.

Steps must be taken to make certain victims are not further traumatized by arrest and detention if they run away to escape violence or exploitation.

Despite their contributions to their host countries, women migrants are not generally assured of basic protection. A simple 40-day mandatory training programme by the SLBFE does not simply address the concerns of those who seek foreign employment. Employers and recruiters alike must be held responsible for their role in exploiting the helpless workers.

What this needs, however, is co-operation between the sending countries and the host countries. However, if the host governments are unwilling to comply then governments like that of Sri Lanka should take steps to stop the flow of migrants to those countries, which they can do at the exit airports. Although painful in the short run tapping the economic potential of the poor at home, turning them into productive individuals through community and self help schemes could be a way forward and would spare many the fate that awaits them at the hands of  employers in the Middle East.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7pkhFnwXkImeasures should be taken to challenge perceptions about migrant workers, in order to recognize their values and contribution to the development of the country.

See more at: http://www.dailymirror.lk/115002/Vague-promises-of-greener-pastures-for-migrant-workers#sthash.iHusvVN2.dpuf

 

Short term lets on the rise in Sri lanka: is this good for the tourism industry?

The informal tourism sector is growing in Sri Lanka and Hiran Cooray Chairman of the Tourist hotels of Sri Lanka for one thinks it’s a good thing.  ( see  report in the Daily Mirror )

So do I.

By his reckoning 2/5th of tourists coming to Sri Lanka now stay in rented apartments, villas and homestay accommodation many of which are rented out via organisations such as Homestay.com Trip Advisor, AirB&B and the like.

Benefits

So why is this a good thing? Let’s start with the positive side.

  • Money paid by tourists goes directly to local people;

“Tourists staying within the local communities pass the revenue directly to the bottom of the income pyramid, fast-tracking grass root level economic development.” Hiran Cooray

  • Visiting tourists get to mix with local people rather than stay cooped up in hotels full of foreigners and they get to experience and enjoy true Sri Lankan hospitality; plus they get to hang out away from traditional tourist areas.
  • Because tourist are using existing facilities there is no additional strain on local authority services
  • The emergence of the informal rental market actually expands what Sri Lanka has to offer to tourists.

Not everyone (Chinese apart maybe) wants to stay in an hotel. A significant number of tourists like to do their own thing, explore local areas eat when they want in and around local Sri Lankans, and so on. They don’t want to be “trapped” in a cramped and possibly quite expensive hotel room. They like the space and informality that the informal sector can offer and when you can stay in an apartment in Havelock City for example.. at a much lower cost.. well why wouldn’t you?

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Havelock City; example of apartment

doing away with the negatives :

  • Unlike the major developments which are springing up around the coast from Kalpitiya to Mirissa and down the east coast; there is no negative environmental impact.
  • There are no major costs to be borne by local communities, economic, environmental or social
  • Homestay and the rental market place no extra strain on stretched local authority services such as electricity, water supply and refuse disposal (although the latter doesn’t seem to be working that well)
Costs
  • owners of rented accommodation don’t pay tourist taxes
  • they are not registered; no-one knows how many there are
  • there is no real quality control beyond what TripAdvisor and AIR B&B can exert
Is it a threat?

So does  the hotel sector needs to worry? No of course not. Sri Lanka can offer world class tourist accommodation for those who want it; plus Colombo is set become a signicant business hub in South Asia so the growth of business tourism which depends on quality hotels is almost assured.

It’s just that not every one can afford the prices that some city centre hotels charge in Colombo for example.

(I could add from my experience that for the money sometimes the service could be a whole lot better, some hotel staff could be a little less “up themselves” but that is for another blog.)

Where it is possible to agree with the Hotels Association is that it is not a level playing field because the informal sector are mainly unregistered and do not have to pay the tourist tax and development levy paid by the hotel chains.

True but the owners do pay local and regional taxes; adding the other costs could simply cause them to raise their rentals to a level where they would not get business so thinking about applying these extra costs or banning the advertising of short term rental and homestay on the web (as has happened in New York for example) is not a step to be taken lightly.

That said there is a case for regulation to be introduced in homestay and private rentals to ensure quality and value for money.

Research needed

In the meantime there is very little data available on the growth of the informal sector at present and maybe it would be worth conducting research so that all concerned know what it is they are discussing.

So time to start asking questions;

  • Where do informal sector tourists stay ? In Colombo? Western Province? Or coastal areas? Maybe it would be worth finding out.

To judge by the Air B&B site much of it is in and around Colombo. If that is so then is it a bad thing? Getting more people to visit Colombo and stay for longer, not necessarily in the city centre can only be good for the economy.

  • Who are these type of  tourists; where do they come from?
  • How long do they stay?
  • What do they do, where do they go what do they visit?
  • Why do they choose rental/homestay?
  • What about the owners/renters: who are they? What accommodation is being used and why?
  • How much money is it making for the owners?

As I wrote in an earlier blog; A Paradise Lost ; see https://geosrilanka.wordpress.com/2015/06/16/sri-lanka-tourism-is-it-just-a-case-of-re-branding/, my belief is that Sri Lankan tourism needs a balanced portfolio of investment; homestay and apartment rentals are.   a part of that, (as is mass tourism) because it has the value of bringing tourists much closer to an understanding of Sri Lankan life and culture.

After all, there is nothing better than hanging out around Water’s Edge on a Saturday night along with the thousands of families who come to chill, enjoy the street food , and relax over an affordable beer maybe.. and you don’t get to do that at The Cinnamon Grand

Boardwalk