The Impact of the Covid Pandemic on UK towns and cities

Thanks to a new report from Centre for Cities based in London we now know how Covid 19 impacted on urban life in the UK. Using real time data from mobile phones and payment cards the report spells out in figures exactly how people were affected by the pandemic and the related restrictions and lockdowns.

Timeline of Lockdowns

Note: In the UK the first lockdown (March – June) involved tight restrictions on movement. People were asked to remain at home and to work from home if they could and to avoid public transport. All non essential shops were closed along with cinemas, clubs, bars and restaurants, pubs Gyms, and so on. There were limited restrictions re-imposed in November 2020 which evolved into a full lockdown in January 2021.

• Lockdown in March and April saw a drastic decline in footfall and spending to just 80% of pre-lockdown levels.
• Between May and September with easing of restrictions footfall recovered to 64% of pre-lockdown levels, and spending to 83% of pre-lockdown levels.
• In September recovery stalled in all of our High Streets
• The partial November lockdown caused retail sales to fall by nearly 4%
• Full lockdown was re-instated at the beginning of January 2021.

The Data

a) People were less mobile.

Comparing February and April 2020;

1. In February people were spending around 33% of their time at home.
2. By April that figure had risen to 50%.
3. Time spent more than 10km away from home dropped by nearly two thirds.

Although that decline gradually reversed so that things were back to near “normal” by October further lockdowns in December 2020 and more recently January 2021 will have, no doubt dampened down mobility once more.

b) Initially all travel fell sharply and although private transport use has almost recovered, public transport usage is still way down.

1. Nationally public transport usage was only at 44% of pre-Covid levels by October 2020
2. London was hardest hit. The drop off in usage was earlier and has been much slower to recover.
3. In comparison, small and medium sized towns have seen a more rapid recovery.

Empty tube train (credit Stoneleigh Boy) 

c) Working from home has been on the rise.

1. Nationally only 66% of workers have returned to their place of workAgain,
2. London was hardest hit. Initially it lost 80% of its office workers, and even by November 2020, 50% hadn’t returned.
3. For the small and medium sized towns the story was not as bleak and towns like Luton and Huddersfield were above the national average for workers in the workplace.

Empty offices; everyone home working (credit Alpha)

d) This had the effect of reducing footfall and spending on the High Streets particularly in the larger towns and city centres. By September, 2020,

1. Birmingham was only at 55% of pre-pandemic levels. 
2. Manchester was at 50%.London was only at 36%.

A deserted Rose Street Edinburgh during lockdown (credit KaysGeog)

1. Spending did recover for the most part albeit the percentage spent online rose from 20% to 25%

The Covid Effect; temporary or permanent?

The simple answer is that it is too early to tell. In the view of some commentators, the phenomenon of working from home is here to stay. If so, then there are implications for footfall and spending in the High Streets of our town centres, and there will be a knock-on effect for public transport usage and provision. So, does this mean that the future for town centres is bleak?

Maybe not, according to others like Paul Swinney policy director at Centre for Cities. He argues that the resilience of cities in Asia dealing with the SARS outbreaks earlier this century suggests cities will bounce back. He also believes that “the value of face to face interaction in the business place will become increasingly important as we move to a knowledge-based economy, meaning people will still want and need to meet in office- based settings. Cities, he argues, are the obvious place for that to happen.

Change is coming

Irrespective of the Covid pandemic, change is coming to UK town centres. In fact, the process had already begun before March 2020. 

• The era of the traditional High Street dominated by retail fashion chains was already coming to a close, as witnessed by the demise of major High Street retailers like Debenhams. 

Note: The term High Street refers to the retail core of the town centre; a high density concentration of shops and department stores located along a small number of streets in the town centre.

• There were also signs of the town and city centres becoming less attractive for commercial users. A report from property consultancy DeVono Cresa suggests that demand for London office space fell by 30 percent across the first quarter of 2020 and a recent article in Property Investor predicts a fall in office rents of around 20% – 30% in London. That may well translate into an increased number of vacant commercial properties.

What the pandemic has done is to “supercharge” a decline that was already in progress. High Streets in the UK are changing, the key question is, what will they evolve into?

Evolution, but into what?

There is a lot of talk of re-imaging and re-purposing UK town and city centres, although there are as yet only sketchy ideas of what that might look like.

In the meantime, the UK government’s response seems to be to remove all planning restrictions from our town and city centres and allow property developers free rein to convert vacant properties into residential property, mainly apartments. Whilst superficially attractive as a proposition, this approach is flawed.

• It lacks imagination.
• It fails to recognise the complexity of the issues facing our towns and cities as they plan for a post pandemic future.
• It doesn’t take account of local community views on what should happen.
• By removing planning controls there is a strong possibility that shops and offices will be replaced with residential property of dubious quality or adequate fire and safety controls.

The Covid19 pandemic will be a game changer as far as UK towns and cities are concerned, but at the moment no-one seems to be able to predict what that might look like.